Hunter Marston: US clash with China 'inevitable' as tensions rise in South China Sea
A clash within the South China Sea is now almost inevitable. The US has declared China's territorial grab "illegal". It wants its "bullied" neighbours to stand their ground.
"We are making clear: Beijing's claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them," a US statement issued earlier this week asserts.
It's not a change of opinion. But it is a loud declaration of intent to establish a "line in the sand" that Beijing should not cross.
"The United States is now explicitly declaring it illegal for China to engage in fishing, oil and gas exploration, or other economic activities in those areas, or to interfere with its neighbours' rights to do so," Asia Maritime Initiative senior fellow Gregory Poling says.
"The next time China does engage in illegal harassment of its neighbours within their EEZs [exclusive economic zones], a more forceful US response might lead China to double down out of a sense of nationalism," he added.
China's "wolf-warrior" rhetoric has given it little wiggle room to back down.
"Perhaps now Beijing feels like it's pushed up against a wall," Australian National University School of International Relations doctoral candidate Hunter Marston told news.com.au.
"All these countries are now more or less affirming the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision. Perhaps they [Beijing] say what else do they have to lose? You know, the gloves are off."
And that lays the groundwork for open confrontation.
It's a fear echoed in a report by Council on Foreign Relations assistant professor Oriana Skylar Mastro: "China could see military action as its only recourse if it loses the diplomatic option to assert its sovereignty claims. The continued downward spiral in US-China relations could also encourage Xi to adopt a now-or-never approach to the South China Sea.
US navy sailors conduct pre-flight checks on an MH-60R Sea Hawk in drills in the South China Sea.
Wounded wolves
Beijing is getting irritated. The Chinese Communist Party has called Washington a "spoiler, saboteur and disrupter".
"Although Washington doesn't want to start a real war with China, there is the possibility of the unfolding of miscalculations if it continues to try and stir up trouble in the South China Sea," declares the editor of the Communist Party's China Daily.
Beijing's diplomats are racing to re-establish dominance over the narrative.
"China's position on the South China Sea issue has been consistent and clear-cut. While firmly safeguarding its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, China has been committed to resolving disputes through negotiation and consultation with countries directly involved, managing differences through rules and mechanisms, and achieving win-win results through mutually beneficial co-operation," a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the US said.
The embassy declares the South China Sea has "remained peaceful and stable and is still improving", ignoring a recent spate of rammings of fishing vessels, high-seas stand-offs over sea exploration efforts and its arbitrary construction of military bases on artificial islands.
"Under the pretext of endorsing rules, it is using UNCLOS to attack China while refusing to ratify the Convention itself. Under the pretext of upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, it is recklessly infringing on other countries' territorial sea and airspace and throwing its weight around in every sea of the world," the spokesperson added.
Beijing is a signatory to the UN's law of the sea (UNCLOS) but has declared all rulings against its interests as being irrelevant or invalid.
Washington is not a signatory of UNCLOS but is seeking to enforce its jurisdiction over the dispute. But, Marston points out, the US has been conforming to law where Beijing has not.
"I think Washington's...
"We are making clear: Beijing's claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them," a US statement issued earlier this week asserts.
It's not a change of opinion. But it is a loud declaration of intent to establish a "line in the sand" that Beijing should not cross.
"The United States is now explicitly declaring it illegal for China to engage in fishing, oil and gas exploration, or other economic activities in those areas, or to interfere with its neighbours' rights to do so," Asia Maritime Initiative senior fellow Gregory Poling says.
"The next time China does engage in illegal harassment of its neighbours within their EEZs [exclusive economic zones], a more forceful US response might lead China to double down out of a sense of nationalism," he added.
China's "wolf-warrior" rhetoric has given it little wiggle room to back down.
"Perhaps now Beijing feels like it's pushed up against a wall," Australian National University School of International Relations doctoral candidate Hunter Marston told news.com.au.
"All these countries are now more or less affirming the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision. Perhaps they [Beijing] say what else do they have to lose? You know, the gloves are off."
And that lays the groundwork for open confrontation.
It's a fear echoed in a report by Council on Foreign Relations assistant professor Oriana Skylar Mastro: "China could see military action as its only recourse if it loses the diplomatic option to assert its sovereignty claims. The continued downward spiral in US-China relations could also encourage Xi to adopt a now-or-never approach to the South China Sea.
US navy sailors conduct pre-flight checks on an MH-60R Sea Hawk in drills in the South China Sea.
Wounded wolves
Beijing is getting irritated. The Chinese Communist Party has called Washington a "spoiler, saboteur and disrupter".
"Although Washington doesn't want to start a real war with China, there is the possibility of the unfolding of miscalculations if it continues to try and stir up trouble in the South China Sea," declares the editor of the Communist Party's China Daily.
Beijing's diplomats are racing to re-establish dominance over the narrative.
"China's position on the South China Sea issue has been consistent and clear-cut. While firmly safeguarding its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, China has been committed to resolving disputes through negotiation and consultation with countries directly involved, managing differences through rules and mechanisms, and achieving win-win results through mutually beneficial co-operation," a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the US said.
The embassy declares the South China Sea has "remained peaceful and stable and is still improving", ignoring a recent spate of rammings of fishing vessels, high-seas stand-offs over sea exploration efforts and its arbitrary construction of military bases on artificial islands.
"Under the pretext of endorsing rules, it is using UNCLOS to attack China while refusing to ratify the Convention itself. Under the pretext of upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, it is recklessly infringing on other countries' territorial sea and airspace and throwing its weight around in every sea of the world," the spokesperson added.
Beijing is a signatory to the UN's law of the sea (UNCLOS) but has declared all rulings against its interests as being irrelevant or invalid.
Washington is not a signatory of UNCLOS but is seeking to enforce its jurisdiction over the dispute. But, Marston points out, the US has been conforming to law where Beijing has not.
"I think Washington's...
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