President Joe Biden makes a four-day trip to the Middle East this coming week where he will meet leaders of the region to discuss a long list of issues including regional security, Iran, Israeli-Palestinian relations and global economic and energy dynamics, among other issues. What can we expect from this visit, and how might it impact trends within the region and the impact the Middle East has on broader geopolitical dynamics?

Speakers

Khaled Elgindy
Senior Fellow and Director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs

Mick Mulroy
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Program

Alex Vatanka
Director, Iran Program; Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative

Karen Young
Senior Fellow and Director, Program on Economics and Energy

Brian Katulis, moderator
Vice President of Policy and Senior Fellow

Five Key Takeaways

1. President Biden should focus on energy security over oil production: Karen Young recommended that President Biden should not ask Saudi Arabia to break with its OPEC+ partners and exhaust global spare capacity. Rather, the United States should focus on building a long-term energy partnership with the Gulf states to meet the broader needs of an emerging-market energy transition. However, this is an unlikely scenario since the trip agenda will likely focus on security matters.
2. The United States must remain consistent in its regional partnerships: Mick Mulroy argued that human rights should be an integral aspect of American foreign policy. In order to protect human rights on an international scale, the United States must remain a consistent partner to its foreign allies, including Saudi Arabia. This imperative has become more important as Russia and China continue to expand their reach in the Middle East.
3. The Biden visit will uphold the status quo in Palestine and Israel: Khaled Elgindy explained that President Biden has not done enough to preserve the possibility of a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel and that the Palestinian leg of Biden’s visit is ancillary. Biden has made little breaks with the Trump administration’s Palestine-Israel policy. On the other hand, the Israel leg is central to the trip since Israeli regional integration is one of Biden’s main goals.
4. Iran does not hold high expectations for Biden’s visit: Alex Vatanka described that Tehran does not expect that Biden’s visit will result in the creation of a Middle Eastern NATO with Iran as its key nemesis, nor that the Arab Gulf states will become direct participants of the nuclear negotiations. However, Tehran feels threatened by the prospect of a U.S.-led integrated defense system and will lash out if the idea gains traction.
5. Normalization is on the agenda, but don't expect major steps this visit: The scholars concurred that a key goal of the trip is to push normalization with Israel in the region, especially in pursuit of a collaborative security system. Young explained that there are already major regional initiatives including Israel on the energy front, especially regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. Vatanka assured that Iran will not cut its budding relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE if normalization with Israel progresses further. However, it is unlikely that any formal commitments will materialize.