the weekly rundown

twr team

the weekly rundown is a brief sunday morning newsletter putting the previous week's political & business news into context and helping you understand why they matter. we’ll explain big ideas, emerging trends, and overlooked stories. read less
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45 democrats fail, rising interest rates
19-12-2021
45 democrats fail, rising interest rates
readers, as we wrap up the third quarter of TWR, we’re reevaluating how we produce this newsletter and how we can make all of you happier. if you have any suggestions, please reach out - sooner than later! if you’d be interested in joining our team as a writer, editor, or narrator, please also shoot us an email.big idea: dems botch their big spending billJoe finally admitted late this week that his big $2 trillion social policy and climate change bill would not pass by the end of the year, possibly dooming his signature “Build Back Better” campaign promise. for the past several months, Joe and senate leadership have insisted that the bill would be passed before christmas, but alas, the Grinch has stolen it. and when we say Grinch, we mean Joe Manchin of course, the most conservative dem in the senate.Manchin is taking issue with the overall price tag of the bill, and specifically seems to be targeting the child tax credit. that $600 per month per child check to most families costs a lot, and was originally passed as a temporary COVID stimulus measure, which progressive democrats wanted to make permanent. this impasse comes even after days of private negotiations between the two Joes, though to be honest we’re surprised either of them have the intact mental capacity for such prolonged thought…dems need unanimous support within their party in the senate to pass anything, so expect to see continued drama over this, immigration, and election rights well into the new yearstory to watch: rising interest rates here, but not across the pondthe Fed announced this week that it plans on hiking interest rates three times next year, beginning in march. they are also more rapidly than previously anticipated ending stimulus measures they began at the start of the pandemic. this all comes amid better than expected jobs growth and higher than expected spikes in the cost of consumer goods and inflation. generally speaking, raising interest rates tends to slow down the economy and inflation.of note, the Fed chair only announced his reversal on interest rates after he was reappointed to another term by Joe, which gave him some capital to spend on this politically unpopular move. more likely though, the Fed is realizing that the pandemic permanently shrunk the american labor force, which will force it to maintain higher interest rates than in the past, even if there’s the same level of economic growth.just after the Fed made its announcement, the European Central Bank (the Fed’s equivalent in the eurozone) came out and said they would not be raising interest rates at all next year, and would be continuing its stimulus measures. this would probably be an appropriate time to mention what the Bank of England has going on, but ever since Brexit, we just can’t seem to care at all what the british are up to…anyways, while europe and the US are in different phases of their recoveries, it’s clear that the...
44 inflation (again), Starbucks unionizes
12-12-2021
44 inflation (again), Starbucks unionizes
part of our team is traveling this week, so if you’re listening to the audio version of the newsletter, you’re probably noticing a different, more suave, more...distinguished voice. don’t worry, our usual nasally midwestern half-asleep narrator will be back next week, but in the meantime...enjoy. we’re looking for narrators, authors, and editors to join our team, so reach out if you’d like to join in the fun.big idea: yeah yeah, inflation inflationwe get it dude, inflation is on the rise. do we really need to spend like four issues on this? prices of consumer goods rose by almost 7% year-over-year last month, the largest rise in inflation in almost forty years. new car prices continue to have a huge effect on that number, with the chip shortage crippling the industry. restaurant prices have also increased by about 8% since last november, reflecting rising wages across the hospitality sector.what’s confusing the heck out of businesses and economists is the asymmetry in demand for goods versus services. it makes sense to some degree - COVID is making it more difficult for people to travel and play, so inflation in service industries remain low. instead of spending money on services, people are spending money on buying more goods (aka trying to fill the heart-shaped hole in their chests with junk), resulting in crazy high inflation in things like the consumer price index.this goods-services dynamic is the opposite of the typical economic recovery, which is why everyone is a little confused. the big question is how long this role reversal will last, and if full employment can be reached before inflation gets out of control. in the meantime though, continue enjoying those low airline ticket prices, but really - you’ll still be overpaying for 28” of legroom.story to watch: Starbucks is unionizinga Starbucks in buffalo voted to unionize thursday, the first corporate-owned location in the US to do so. this occurred despite a well-publicized and funded anti-union push by the company over the past few months. one other buffalo location voted against unionizing, and a third location voted in favor, but is facing a recount. union organizers are hoping this will inspire viral collective action not only at other Starbucks locations, but across the unskilled sector.the number of americans in unions has halved since just the 1980’s, and the failure to unionize an Amazon warehouse earlier this year was a big loss as well. however, this small Starbucks win will definitely put some wind behind unions’ sails, especially when considering americans are quitting their jobs in droves and unions have the best public image since the 1960’s. we always knew being a Starbucks barista must suck, but apparently misspelling everyone’s names just isn’t a big enough perk to keep them around…this week’s image: screaming or laughing?(The Guardian) finally, a good use of dogs - comforting children as they get COVID shotsthis week’s number: pro-Trump counties have 3x COVID mortality ratesan analysis this week found that people living in counties which voted heavily for You-Know-Who in 2020 had about
43 oxford school shooting, mayday
05-12-2021
43 oxford school shooting, mayday
listen, we know supermarkets are crazy these days because of all your last-minute christmas shopping, but seriously - there should be a minimum age required to use self-checkout lanes. we love the idea of not having to interact with another human being to purchase items, especially when those items happen to be six pints of ice cream and a single spoon, we just can’t stand waiting for the otherwise nice 60-year-old grandma in front of us figure out how to use a barcode scanner. big idea: oxford school shootinga school shooting just a few miles away from where we live took place earlier this week, ending with four dead children and a teenage suspect being charged with murder and terrorism as an adult. it’s surreal driving around town with christmas parades cancelled and flags lowered, but also, unfortunately, a normal occurrence here in ‘murica. if it seems a bit more traumatic than usual, it’s because it’s the deadliest school shooting since 2018, and the deadliest ever in michigan.while some of the injured are still in the hospital, families are already beginning to question who’s at fault here, other than the terrorist himself. the school itself had safety concerns about the boy, and repeatedly assured parents that oxford high was safe for their children to attend. the suspect’s parents were arrested and are being charged with involuntary manslaughter for purchasing the gun used in the massacre for their son, and apparently resisting the school’s attempts to get psychiatric help for him. the suspect’s parents fled oxford for detroit, where they were arrested while hiding in a warehouse. oh, the irony of reverse white flight...in any case, the true responsible parties here are politicians who stand in the way of common sense gun control, most of whom these days are republican. the last time any new gun control laws were passed nationally were in the 1990’s, when the brady bill mandated background checks and waiting periods for gun purchases. now, we wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we didn’t point out that while an even-then-somehow-ancient Joe Biden shepherded the bill through his committee, a young whippersnapper named Bernie Sanders voted against that common sense gun control measure...this week’s image: mayday, mayday(AFP) some old guy just casually saunters past a sinking ship off the coast of istanbul. ahh, what it would be like to be this jaded by life...this week’s number: 210k jobs added in novemberthe november jobs report was released this week, and man are we (and economists) a little weirded out. on the one hand, half the number of new jobs were created compared to what was expected - 210,000 versus the projected 550,000. on the other hand, the unemployment rate still dropped to 4.2%, and the percentage of americans...
42 covid is back, weekly unemployment numbers
28-11-2021
42 covid is back, weekly unemployment numbers
readers, we’re honestly surprised we managed to hoist ourselves out of bed to write this issue following turkey day. we mean seriously, with black friday sales sucking this year, there was even less of a reason not to just succumb to the usual post-prandial thanksgiving day food coma. alas, we realized we had to stick it out, if only for our canadian readers who, for some reason, celebrate thanksgiving in october.big idea: time to learn how to say “omicron”a new COVID variant is making the rounds in people, the stock markets, and the media, so we’re here to tell you we’re confused over the hubbub too. the W.H.O. categorized this omicron variant, first discovered in south africa, a “variant of concern”, an award also given to the delta variant which has wreaked havoc for the past year. fewer than a hundred cases in south africa have been identified and a handful of cases have also been found in the UK and hong kong.within about 48 hours of the new cases being announced, the EU, US, canada, and other nations already banned travelers from south africa and other southern african nations. stock indexes fell sharply on friday as investors worried that omicron could dampen an already unsteady economic recovery.scientists and the W.H.O. honestly know very little about the variant, other than it is quite different from your normal COVID strain - which could potentially make it more virulent, more contagious, more fatal, and/or more resistant to existing vaccines. at this point in the pandemic, health experts are more likely to overreact than underreact to threats. it will likely take weeks, if not months, to figure out how bad this variant really is. in the meantime though, go get vaccinated dummies, and wear a mask like it’s the 1300’s in europe again.this week’s image: Alvin, the squirrel(The Atlantic) a turkish squirrel steals a sip of turkish tea (in turkey, in case you were wondering).this week’s number: weekly unemployment claims fall to 199kthe number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell to a 52-year low of 199,000 people last week. that’s incredibly astonishing, especially when considering the population has skyrocketed from 200 million then to almost 330 million today, and it follows eight straight weeks of declining unemployment claims.so what’s the bottom line? the economy is strong, despite rising inflation due to supply chain issues. it’s clear that the Fed is much more concerned about reaching full employment than inflation, a constant tension they face when setting monetary policy. on our end, we think it’s high time - the Fed’s maniacal obsession with inflation over the past two decades (along with a crippled governmental response to the recession) has led to rising inequality, slow growth, and valuing wealth over earned income.what we’re reading: “What the CEO Wants You to Know”a quick read by our favorite consultant who also shares a name with a
41 Joe's on a roll, the end of conglomerates
21-11-2021
41 Joe's on a roll, the end of conglomerates
well readers, we’re back after a whirlwind of travel last week spanning washington, new york, north carolina, and michigan. we’re also sick as dogs, from something other than COVID, so please excuse the raspier voice than normal, and we hope the fog in our brains didn’t result in an overly muddled issue. in any case, it’s great to be back, and an early happy thanksgiving to all our non-canadian readers.big idea: Joe’s on a rollJoe had his first good week in a while, kicking things off on monday by signing the trillion dollar bipartisan infrastructure bill, then holding a relatively successful virtual summit with china’s president later in the week, and capping things off watching his signature climate and social policy bill get passed through the House last night. not everything is happy go lucky, of course - inflation is still breaking records, and his approval ratings are in the dumps - but Joe is probably hoping to have turned a corner this week.we talked thru the infrastructure bill in issue 39, so we’ll focus on the other two news items. first, Joe and china’s president Xi managed to significantly de-escalate tensions between the two countries during a virtual meeting - the first time a Zoom call has ever been productive. we’ve extensively covered the issues dividing china and the US in previous issues, and no huge breakthroughs occurred this week. but, the consensus is that it’s fantastic news that the world’s two superpowers can talk without hurling insults at each other like schoolyard children.however, most americans probably care much more about the $2 trillion climate and social policy bill which the house passed friday. now that Joe’s got some momentum, he’ll probably push conservative dems in the senate to negotiate quickly and approve an amended version of the bill sooner rather than later. the current draft includes half a trillion to address climate change, paid parental leave, universal preK, and Medicare drug reforms. we’ll have to cross our fingers and hope the Grinch doesn’t steal christmas...story to watch: the end of conglomeratescorporate conglomerates have taken a beating in the past week, with GE, Toshiba, and Johnson & Johnson announcing plans to split their companies up. is this finally the end of the 1990’s wall street darling - the corporate conglomerate? for years, manufacturing, retail, and tech companies have pursued scale by competing in multiple industries at once. GE famously used to have business units covering everything from broadcast TV to mortgages to jet engines to MRI...
39 dems lose big time, then win
07-11-2021
39 dems lose big time, then win
okay, so we’re not going to lie - we’re not 100% sure this will land in your inbox at 7am instead of at 8am (or possibly 6am). we’ve been on this earth for more than 80 years (collectively, though we do write like a grumpy 80 year old man at times), and we still have no idea how daylight saving time works. so, we guess the point of this is to say: we hope you enjoy, regardless of what time it is or should be.big idea: dems bungle election day, but bring home infrastructuredems failed miserably in off-year elections tuesday, losing the virginia governor’s race, barely holding onto the new jersey governorship, and losing dozens of local races across solidly blue areas. let’s be clear - the dems running in these races were highly qualified, good candidates, and were often incumbents. voter turnout was also record-high in some places. yet, dems still lost across the board. progressives can’t even say that it’s all the moderates’ fault, as a socialist lost to a write-in candidate for mayor in buffalo. what caused the losses? well, Joe’s approval ratings are in the dumps, dems have spent literally months arguing about an infrastructure bill and a climate policy bill, and the economy is good, but not great, with rising inflation. the pandemic stubbornly continues to impact people’s daily lives, which definitely hurts the democrat’s base enthusiasm. so, we guess people are just...tired and frustrated, and that translates electorally to voting out the ruling party. the good news is that Joe seems to be paying attention, and pushed house progressives to pass the $1 trillion infrastructure bill which has been waiting for their approval for weeks now. Joe will make a big deal out of signing it, and that’ll buy some time for him to figure out how to pass the climate bill through the senate sometime soon. who knows, maybe america will remember why they elected a slightly-senile, aviator-wearing grandpa in time for midterms next year.this week’s image: volcanic eruptions(The Atlantic) a home is covered in ash on the canary islands, where a volcano has been apparently erupting since september this week’s number: 1.5 million additional retirees due to COVIDan analysis by the Fed found that 1.5 million more americans retired than expected since the pandemic started last year. as we have previously talked about, this is contributing to a falling percentage of americans actually working and contributing value to the economy. the big question economists are asking is if these retirements are temporary - will older workers reenter the workforce to ease shortages when the pandemic flames out and working conditions improve? we guess we can do our part and stop making fun...
38 Joe flees with dems in disarray, no one's going to college anymore
31-10-2021
38 Joe flees with dems in disarray, no one's going to college anymore
readers, we’re just going to say this once: it’s halloween tonight, so gird yourselves accordingly. go buy up all the eggs and toilet paper you can get your hands onto - not because there’s a COVID shortage, but so those neighborhood youths can’t attack you again. don’t say we didn’t try to save you...big idea: Joe flees for italy while dems fail to do anything (again)for the second time this month, dems failed to pass massive infrastructure or climate bills. again, bickering between the progressive and moderate ends of the party prevented any work from getting done. Joe unveiled a $1.75 trillion climate bill earlier this week, which conservative dems in the senate (namely Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema) refused to back publicly, despite them negotiating on the package for months. because of that, house progressives refused to vote on another $1 trillion infrastructure bill, fearing that if they vote for the infrastructure bill, the climate policy bill will never actually pass.Joe could’ve forced everyone’s hand by publicly backing both bills and telling house dems to fall in line, but he didn’t...and left the US for the G-20 summit after everything fell apart. there’s still time before the end of the year for dems to pull it together, and the odds for success are much higher now that the outline of a climate policy bill has been announced. however, the devil (and Sinema) are in the details, so there’s a very real possibility dems will be running in the midterms next year with no accomplishments to point to.story to watch: college enrollment is in the dumpsfor the second year running, college enrollment declined substantially. since 2019 undergraduate enrollment has dropped by 6.5%, with this year’s drop being nearly identical in scale to last year’s. colleges are surprised, to say the least - they figured the recovery from COVID would boost enrollment, not dent it further. the drop is almost exclusively felt by community colleges and smaller four year universities at the lower end of the market. of note, enrollment among black students fell the most dramatically, at 5.1% this year alone.so, what’s happening? basically the job market is so hot right now that high school students and older professionals who are switching careers don’t think they need a degree to get a job - and they’re right, at least in the short-term. the problem will come in the long-term, after the next recession, or when automation or outsourcing takes out a few more million jobs. these poorly trained workers won’t have many career options at that point, and will either have to settle for a lifetime of low paying jobs, or go back to college later in life.this week’s image: silence of the lambsImage caption(The Atlantic) shepherds drive thousands of lambs through the streets of madrid, part of an agreement for free passage through the city dating back to 1418. baa-utiful.this week’s number: 32% of TV casts were majority-minority last yearUCLA released an annual report on the state of diversity in hollywood,...
37 your amazon package is delayed, the uh scottish are coming
24-10-2021
37 your amazon package is delayed, the uh scottish are coming
look, after we wrote this issue we realized like half of it has to do with the climate crisis, but don’t blame us - it’s called a crisis for a reason, okay? we promise, we won’t be as doom and gloom next week, apart from the usual warning to be on the lookout for halloween shenanigans. we’re like 94% sure it’s not a coincidence that our house gets egged every october 31st...big idea: woe is me, supply chain issues aboundnearly two years into the nightmare that is COVID, supply chain issues continue to...plague us. there are shortages of everything from computer chips to glass bottles, delays in everything from christmas toys to school bus pickups, and not enough employees in industries from trucking to...well, unloading trucks. thank god none of our writing team say...works in logistics...and spends most of his time in a warehouse shipping goods…anyways, we’re pointing out things you’ve probably already noticed because the problem is getting worse, not better. despite Joe announcing last week that a couple of the busiest ports in the US would begin running 24/7, the backlog of ships waiting to unload in california just set a historic record. more than 100 huge container ships are anchored off the coast of LA. LA’s port sees 40% of all our imports and 30% of all exports, and has seen shipping volumes increase by a quarter since last year.so, just remember that when Costco is out of your favorite toilet paper, it’s probably stuck on some ship in the pacific, and you should probably start using a bidet anyways.story to watch: the climate summit is almost herea climate summit starts next week in glasgow, scotland, where the goal is to come up with a plan to make the world carbon neutral by 2050. this is the follow-up to the paris climate agreement, where countries agreed to limit warming to two degrees celsius. glasgow is viewed as where nations need to come up with solid plans to back up their promises made in paris.the main showdown will be between developing and developed economies, with poorer nations asking for $100 billion to subsidize their shift away from fossil fuels. expect some of us rich people to don tophats and monocles and pretend that the third world should come up with the money on their own.plenty of companies and NGOs are putting together press releases in preparation for the talks. australia has been ranked the worst rich country for the climate, Exxon is considering giving up on some oil projects, Amazon and Ikea are promising their shipping will be carbon neutral by 2040, and even the british Royal Mint is planning on recycling gold from cell phones into new coins. we knew we should’ve kept that old cracked Nokia 3310...this week’s image: chamber of secrets commerce(
36 dems shoot each other in the foot, rethinking china
17-10-2021
36 dems shoot each other in the foot, rethinking china
readers, we took a different approach to our hottake this week - less funny, more personal. it’s our thoughts on the role of american muslims in today’s divisive politics. we’re no experts, so take everything we say with a grain (or two) of salt, but we do hope it’s food for thought.big idea: dems fall to friendly fireamid continuing negotiations over a climate change and social welfare bill, dems are apparently starting to shoot each other in the foot. good ol’ Bernie decided that the best way to convince Joe Manchin, the party’s most conservative senator, to back the $3.5 trillion bill was to publicly attack him in an op-ed published in Manchin’s hometown newspaper. this is after a Bernie-allied group promised to aggressively go after Kyrsten Sinema, the second most conservative dem senator, which apparently includes following her into the bathroom to harass her. listen, we’re not masters of negotiation here, but common sense dictates maybe try not to piss off people you’re trying to win over. then again, Bernie did lose two consecutive presidential elections, so maybe he’s really not that smart after all.story to watch: corporations rethink chinabig news from two different tech giants this week - first, Apple announced that it had pulled a popular Quran reading app from its App Store in china, and second, Microsoft announced that it will be pulling LinkedIn from the country. both events demonstrate the complexity surrounding business in china, and how american companies are having to rethink their presence in the world’s largest consumer market.Apple, which has a long and storied history of caving into demands of the chinese government and staying silent on chinese human rights issues, pulled a Quran reading app used by over a million people in china after the government asked it to do so. a Bible app was also pulled by its publisher this week.Microsoft tried for years to satisfy chinese censors by limiting the content available on LinkedIn, but has apparently thrown in the towel by removing the platform. it was the only western social media network available in china, and will now be replaced by a simpler job hunting tool.well, we’re standing here on our soap box wondering when american corporations will realize there are fundamental issues with doing business in an authoritarian regime which routinely tramples on human rights. we understand and believe that corporations are designed to maximize profits, but these huge multinationals need to take a side - money or human rights? now, please excuse us while we go watch TikTok on our iPhone.this week’s image: one lucky canadian meteorite(NYT) a canadian grandma escaped death when a meteorite hit her house, went through her roof, and crash landed on her bed just inches away from where she was sleeping. the chances of that happening this year? one in one hundred billion, but who believes scientists anymore?this week’s number: 1 in 4 americans quit their job this yeara new study found that an astounding quarter of all american workers quit their job so far this year, a few percentage points higher than even 2020, and several points higher than the pre-pandemic boom years. there are any number of reasons people quit, from work-life balance, to unfriendly workplaces, to realizing you work for a soul-sucking conglomerate which is destroying the world.what’s surprising employers is who is quitting their jobs - it’s not entry level or young people, but employees with five to ten years of tenure, women, and those over 30. resignations from these groups can be particularly damaging to companies because of the amount of institutional knowledge that is lost with just one...
35 an unsteady economy, the empire strikes back
10-10-2021
35 an unsteady economy, the empire strikes back
readers, we’re sorry for a glitch that led to some of you receiving last week’s issue twice. it won’t happen again...we hope. you’d think that immediately after issuing a mea culpa we wouldn’t have the courage to ask you to refer a friend, and you’re right. we won’t. we’ll just point out your unique subscriber referral link is at the bottom of this email big idea: an unsteady economic recoveryin case you thought you understood the economy, we’re here to break the news to you - you don’t, we don’t either. the september jobs report had anemic numbers despite a host of positive news over the past month. wages are skyrocketing, college seniors are being bombarded with job offers, COVID cases are decreasing, hiring in the hospitality sector is stabilizing, and schools have largely reopened.despite all that, fewer than half the expected number of new jobs were created last month, and the number of people participating in the workforce fell in key demographics, like black men. we’re also seeing all sorts of labor strikes and walkouts, from food to hollywood, and supply chain issues continue to weigh on manufacturing and consumer goods. listen, we haven’t been this confused since the end of “Inception”.so what’s our point here? well, last month’s jobs report could be largely explained by local governments failing to find enough people to drive buses and clean schools, or...it could be something else. the only thing which is clear is the unclarity surrounding our recovery from COVID. like anyone who has gotten it can tell you, you never really know when you’ll be back up to 100% again.story to watch: china strikes at taiwanchina raised the temperature in eastern asia this week as it sent dozens of aircraft into airspace near taiwan continuously for days on end. the taiwanese airforce was overwhelmed by this show of strength. this record-breaking testing of taiwan’s defenses coincides with china celebrating its independence day. this also comes amid newly substantiated reports that last year the US has begun training taiwanse forces for the first time ever, an escalation of our involvement in the island’s defenses. taiwan, which historically has been part of china, broke off 70 years ago when the mainland became communist. it has studiously threaded the needle between autonomy and independence, knowing that a chinese invasion would be devastating.what has changed in recent years is the calculation that such an invasion would likely result in a communist victory. chinese forces are now better equipped and trained than taiwan’s, and the island is increasingly seen as the main cause of tensions between china and the US, rather than an sideshow. Joe and china’s president Xi Jingping will be speaking with each other by the end of the year, so fingers crossed that our thanksgiving turkey isn’t radioactive.this week’s image: nobel laureate (BBC) does a photo of books really count as a notable image? anyways, join us as we celebrate the latest nobel prize in literature winner, Abdulrazak Gurnah, who has contributed more to post-colonial black literature than perhaps anyone else alive.this week’s number: train capacity could increase by 50%we know what you’re thinking - trains are awesome, and we should dedicate an entire issue to them. alas, the world is cruel to us ferroequinologists, and we have to pretend that not everyone is as into trains as they should be. anyways, train capacity within the US could increase by 50% if trains became fully autonomous. we keep hearing about autonomous driving, but in many ways, pushing the envelope on train technology would not only benefit society more, but would also be easier to do.the reality is that the US has the
34 capitol hill drama, auf wiedersehen Angela
03-10-2021
34 capitol hill drama, auf wiedersehen Angela
loyal readers, it’s the end of an era. our favorite blond-haired celebrity is free from over a decade of scrutiny and limited freedom. and before you say anything, no we’re not talking about #freebritney. the leader of free europe, the bastion of democracy in the era of You-Know-Who, the german chancellor with a PhD in freaking quantum chemistry, Angela Merkel oversaw elections this week to choose her replacement. we’ll dig into the details, but for now - shame on you for thinking we’d ever talk about britney spears on TWR.big idea: drama on the hillall sorts of drama has been unfolding this week on capitol hill, with Joe scrambling to fund the government, extend the federal debt ceiling, pass an infrastructure bill, and pass the biggest expansion of welfare benefits since the 1960’s. phew, let us catch our breath for a second.what’s happening boils down to dems not being able to overcome the difference between the moderate and progressive sides of the party, while the republicans laugh on the sidelines. in the next few weeks, the government will both run out of money to spend and out of debt it can issue. dems need to pass a budget and a debt ceiling extension to solve these problems.dems are hoping to attach an expansion of welfare benefits to the budget, since they won’t need 60 votes in the senate to do so, the only chance this year for a partisan bill to pass. moderates and progressives can’t decide which bill should pass first (the budget or the infrastructure bill), or what the total cost should be.there’s many other sideshows going on, and quite a few details we’ve glossed over, but expect continuing drama on capitol hill for the next month. we don’t know when C-SPAN started running soap operas, but we’re loving it.story to watch: auf wiedersehen Angelawe don’t do love poems on TWR, and even if we wanted to, we couldn’t without embarrassing ourselves - but if we could, and if we did, man would we write an ode to Angela Merkel, the outgoing chancellor of germany. one of the longest ruling european politicians in the modern era, she arose from humble beginnings as a physicist in communist east germany to the head of a unified germany. she led with substance, not style, competency not charisma, and gravitas not grandiosity. since 2005, Merkel has handled a series of problems, from the global recession, to the euro debt crisis, to the rise of neo-Nazism amid the syrian refugee crisis, to COVID-19. during the presidency of You-Know-Who, she took on the mantle of leader of the free world without hesitation, becoming liberal democracy’s foremost cheerleader. if only american politicians had Merkel’s principles, savvy, and courage.we’re just getting started here, so check out this week’s hottakes on why we love Angela, and why her reign is coming to an endthis week’s image: decked out cat(The Atlantic) one groovy looking cowboy cat joins pro-democracy protests in thailand. and we thought our cat always looked judgey...this week’s number: 62% of restaurant workers have been emotionally abuseda recent report found that 62% of restaurant workers have been emotionally abused or disrespected by customers, and 15% have been sexually harassed while on the job. this comes amid a huge struggle within the hospitality industry to recruit and retain enough workers while customers seem to be behaving worse than ever. employees have been verbally and physically assaulted for upholding minor rules, like mask or vaccine mandates or table reservations. higher wages can’t solve the problem of jerk customers, so the next time you go out - maybe tip well and turn that frown upside down ;) what we’re reading: “Nudge: The Final Edition”an updated version of the groundbreaking book “Nudge”, first published in...
33 canadian elections, booster shots
26-09-2021
33 canadian elections, booster shots
we’re excited this week to welcome our first TWR contributor, Aziz! we’ll spare you the details - yes, he’s a nice guy, yes, and he’s single - but because of what must be some major childhood trauma, he’s really into canadian politics. so, despite basically no one in the US even thinking about canada this week, he’s bringing us the lowdown on what happened on monday in the great white north.big idea: canada exists, and had electionsJustin Trudeau, canada’s prime minister and latest heartthrob named Justin, called for early elections last month, betting he could increase his party’s share of seats in parliament. canadians voted Monday, and decisively said…”eh?”, delivering an almost identical minority parliament to that before the election.kabul fell to the taliban just hours before calling for elections last month (not a great look) and amid growing concerns over a fourth wave of COVID, Trudeau was and is in the middle of a self-inflicted political nightmare. despite holding onto power for at least the next year or two, his brand was seriously damaged for this miscalculation. how long does Trudeau want to remain at the helm of his Liberal party and will we start to see some leadership rumblings within his caucus?now we know what you’re thinking - what aboot the losers? Conservative party leader Erin O’Toole pushed his party to the center, but still lost. the knives are being sharpened from within his caucus, with many socially conservative members furious with the sudden shift. the progressive party, the NDP, and the uppity french party, the Bloc Quebecois, will likely help Trudeau with key votes, so their leaders are generally assumed to be safe despite technically losing two elections in a row. but really - no one outside quebec really cares about the Bloc Quebecois anyways.our contributor Aziz is just getting started here, so if you want to learn more about canadian politics or how Trudeau’s fortunes turned so quickly - check out his piece on this week’s hottakesstory to watch: booster seats shots are herethe CDC and FDA approved third booster shots for the Pfizer vaccine this week. the agencies disappointed Joe by making them available only to those older than 65, nursing home residents, and younger people who work in high risk environments (like health care employees, teachers, and other frontline workers). Joe had hoped the booster shots would be available to pretty much everyone, but there wasn’t enough scientific evidence to back that up.people should get the shots six months after their last vaccine dose, which will be the next couple of months for most eligible patients. Walgreens and CVS are already preparing to ramp up their vaccine availability, with plans to offer the flu vaccine at the same time. of note, the CDC is not making the third shot required for anyone - people who just receive two shots will be considered fully vaccinated.pundits across the political spectrum are applauding the CDC’s move amid continued strains on the healthcare system. ICUs and hospitals across the south are still overwhelmed, and some companies are resorting to hiring nurses from the philippines to fill staffing shortages.this week’s image: (The Guardian) Angela Merkel, our celebrity crush, is preparing to step down after nearly 16 years as germany’s chancellor. we’ll spend next issue celebrating her reign, but for now - enjoy this compilation of her famous pantsuits and...unique hand gesture.this week’s number: $9.2 billion in suspicious Medicare payments in 2017an investigation by DHS, the governmental agency which oversees Medicare, found that the program made $9.2 billion in suspicious payments to insurers in 2017, the latest year which we have data for. UnitedHealth was called out for receiving about 40% of that sum, a staggering...
32 Facebook really is evil, australia goes nuclear
19-09-2021
32 Facebook really is evil, australia goes nuclear
we’re visiting our little brother this week and we couldn’t help but notice his attire when he picked us up from the airport. it’s almost as though he was trying to instigate us with a bright green Spartans shirt, knowing that we went to Michigan. alas, younger siblings are the worst, but they usually do take our recommendations to heart. don’t believe us? refer them to TWR and see what happens.big idea: Facebook is worse than you thought it was...we all know Facebook is evil, but chances are you didn’t think it was as bad as it actually is. leaked company documents obtained by WSJ demonstrate not only how toxic Facebook-owned Instagram is to teenagers’ mental health, but also how the entire company routinely breaks its own moderation rules if someone famous is involved. the reporting is already resulting in senators calling for additional hearings with Facebook leadership because of just how damning it is.the internal data on Instagram users is particularly worrying. the company found that teens routinely and consistently blamed Instagram for anxiety and depression, and 40% of users said they felt “unattractive” after using the app. this is despite public and repeated denials by Zuckerberg & co that the company didn’t know this sort of stuff.it was also revealed that Facebook has an internal list of 5.8 million users who can basically get away with posting anything without consequences. one example cited was the soccer superstar Neymar posting nude pictures of a woman without her consent, and the photos staying online for more than 24 hours. hey, we hate telling you we told you so...but there’s a reason we abandoned Facebook and Instagram years ago.story to watch: australia buys some ‘murican nuclear submarinesthe US announced wednesday that it would be selling top secret nuclear submarine technology to the land down under. this is technology and expertise the US has only ever shared with the UK before, so it’s a pretty huge deal. the agreement will no doubt mean bookoo bucks for the US, along with sending a strong message to the chinese that the US still views itself as a pacific power.the deal made france all angry because the australians originally had a contract with them to build some old-fashioned diesel subs. nuclear submarines can travel longer, deeper, and more quietly than the old tech, explaining the switch. but really, making the french mad is just a plus. of note, the subs are only powered by nuclear reactors - there aren’t any nukes on board.this will shift the balance of power in the region. this is the first real move the US has made in a decade-long “pivot to Asia”. it puts australia firmly on the side of america, despite its proximity to china, and is making europe’s pro-business stance with china increasingly untenable. both china and the US are trying to cage each other out in different parts of the world, and while europe has successfully kept both happy for the past few decades, that detente seems to be ending. the chinese response has been limited to economic warfare, perhaps signaling they do not want to further raise the temperature. they applied to join the free-trade pact formerly known as the TPP, which is currently made up of a group of dependable US allies. this week’s image: art is trash...or trash is art?(The Guardian) an art display in indonesia includes 4,444 plastic bottles which were dumped as litter in a local river. one dude’s trash really can be another guy’s treasure.this week’s number: 216 million potential climate migrants by 2050a newly published report found that under the worst case scenarios for climate change, up to 216 million...
31 nanny Joe is back, TikTok is taking over
12-09-2021
31 nanny Joe is back, TikTok is taking over
we're in florida this week, and we're not ashamed to say this is our first time visiting the wrinkly elbow joint of america. who knew there was a state where alligators were the most sentient inhabitants? it's not that we're surprised that there's a state where there are more swamps than people, but having to keep our windshield wipers constantly on due to the humidity is still crazy. anyways, we'll be back to civilization by monday, but until then - enjoy our in-depth hottake on Jacob Zuma, the "florida man" of south africa.big idea: nanny Joe is here to rescue us allJoe unveiled his newest plan to beat COVID thursday, which basically boils down to...get vaccinated and quit the shenanigans. the highlights include requiring either vaccination or weekly testing for all employees who work for large businesses, all government contractors, and nearly all federal employees. that’ll cover an estimated 100 million people, or two-thirds of america’s working population.this comes amid the delta-spike in cases, with 1,500 people dying daily from COVID and a new CDC study which found unvaccinated people are eleven times more likely to die from COVID than vaccinated smartie pants. it also comes after months of Dems essentially begging Joe to screw his critics and go full nanny state.what finally changed Joe's mind? more than likely, his dropping poll numbers combined with a fully FDA-approved vaccine. his team finally realized that his critics were going to compare any move he made to an overbearing, interfering nanny state, so why not take actually effective policy steps to end the pandemic? states with higher vaccination rates clearly have fewer outbreaks and deaths, and it is time to replicate that success nationally. we'll have to wait and see though, if you're crazy enough to refuse the vaccine, you're probably crazy enough to quit your job over it too.story to watch: TikTok beats YouTube in minutes useda new report adds to the growing evidence that TikTok is the new social media app to beat. Android users in the US and UK spent more average time on TikTok per month than YouTube. in 2020, TikTok beat Facebook’s Messenger app to become the most downloaded app of the year, and now earns more money than YouTube per user. that’s phenomenal performance for an app which is barely five years old, especially when considering TikToks are three minutes long at most. because YouTube has more than double the number of users (two billion versus 700 million), it still has more time spent on its platform. to put things in perspective, 44% of all time on smartphones is spent on social media apps, so TikTok is at the very top of the app game.like all the other massive social media platforms, this crown will no doubt shed more light on the shadiness of TikTok. its corporate owner is ByteDance, a chinese company which claims there is a firewall between the communist party and the massive amounts of data it
30 abortions outlawed in texas, Ikea's going green
05-09-2021
30 abortions outlawed in texas, Ikea's going green
we were asked by our brother to recommend a new smartphone to buy - and we were stumped. on the one hand, we love our latest galaxy #android4life but that’s a pretty major life decision, up there with whether to buy or rent your first home or deciding if you’re team iron man or captain america. luckily, referring a friend to subscribe to TWR isn’t a huge deal at all! it’s free, and you’ll earn some swell prizes.big idea: most abortions are outlawed in texaswe’re delving into a hot button social issue this week, which is unusual - really, who wants to hear three brown guys’ opinions on abortion anyways? but, this is big news so here we go: a 5-4 late-night supreme court ruling upheld a law banning most abortions in texas. this is no doubt the conservative court’s first step towards dismantling the right to a safe, elective abortion.the supreme court originally enshrined that right into law nearly 50 years ago in a case called Roe v Wade, and conservatives have been attempting to erase that precedent for decades. the texas law, which is already being replicated by state legislatures around the south, seems to have done just that.the law effectively bans all abortions after six weeks of pregancy, which accounts for 85% of all abortions in texas. Roe v Wade permitted abortion up until 22 weeks. the law was purposefully written to avoid court battles by leaving enforcement up to citizens rather than state authorities. instead of the state AG suing abortion clinics, an anti-abortion activist could round up a gang of friends to sue clinics instead, resulting in a potentially crippling number of lawsuits.there’s a ton more to unpack here, from how the supreme court issued this ruling, to how John Roberts has effectively lost control of the court, to how big business is reacting to the ruling. you can read all that, and more, on this week’s hottake.story to watch: Ikea pivots to sustainabilitya year after introducing a furniture buyback program in most of the countries in which it operates, Ikea is piloting a similar resale operation here in the US. it’s part of Ikea’s efforts to become a more sustainable business, with the hope being consumers sell used furniture back to Ikea for store credit instead of just throwing out that $10 lamp.Ikea is hoping customers will be okay with returning products for up to 50% back, and that other customers will be willing to buy those same products for a slight markup. this is a remarkable turnaround for a business which is almost defined by the disposable nature of its products, an incredibly environmentally-unfriendly practice. we’ll see how Ikea’s pilot goes, but other businesses known for their expendable products, like fast fashion brand Gap, are getting into the secondhand market too. we guess if you’re willing to buy a used t-shirt, a used mattress isn’t a huge stretch either...this week’s image: raccoons gone wild(The Guardian) a finalist for this year’s comedy...
29 afghanistan falls apart, Rivian files for IPO
29-08-2021
29 afghanistan falls apart, Rivian files for IPO
amid the haze of dehydration brought on by the unforgiving august sun, we began to ponder life’s big questions. which came first, racoons’ bandit masks or their reputation for banditry? why does hollywood keep casting british actors despite their terrible american accents? what the heck are carbon tariffs and why should I care? well, we don’t have answers to the first two, but we did a deep dive on that last question in our weekly wednesday segment, hottakes. check it out before racoons steal your internet too.big idea: afghanistan falls aparta suicide bomber ripped through a crowd at kabul’s airport this week, killing nearly 200 afghan civilians and american soldiers. Joe’s argument that afghanistan is no longer a haven for terrorists is kaput - but the withdrawal continues. Joe resisted pressure to extend the withdrawal date beyond august. for once, we have a ‘murican foreign policy decision based on logic, not fear.in response to the attack, a drone strike took place in eastern afghanistan, reportedly killing the planner of the operation. notably, the attack was organized by an offshoot of IS, perhaps the taliban’s most potent rival in the region.more than 100k people have been airlifted out of kabul in recent days, with the massive operation already slowing pace. the europeans have more or less completed their evacuation, and the americans are not far behind. the taliban have increasingly cut off access to the airport to native afghans, who are now attempting to flee the country via its porous borders with iran and pakistan.the taliban continues its PR offensive with the west, condemning the suicide bombing, allowing female civil servants to continue working, and meeting with american leaders, including the CIA director. 75% of the afghan government’s budget comes from foreign aid, so the taliban are more than willing to play ball.story to watch: another tesla competitor is going publicRivian, an EV startup based in michigan and california, filed paperwork for an IPO late this week. it’s clearly trying to capitalize on a booming stock market and the frenzy over electric vehicles. in many ways, Rivian is the anti-Tesla - it’s notoriously secretive, initially plans on making money with delivery vans instead of consumer products, and has major corporate investors like Amazon.the company is aiming for an $80 billion valuation, well above the market caps of GM ($72 billion) and Ford ($53 billion), and almost double the $43 billion valuation another EV startup, Lucid, earned in julythis comes amid other big moves in the EV market. Waymo, Google’s play in the auto industry, recently...
28 afghanistan fell...quickly, will 'murica learn?
22-08-2021
28 afghanistan fell...quickly, will 'murica learn?
we’re continuing our new, wednesday deep dive articles called hottakes on our website at theweeklyrundown.us. we’re continuing our discussion of the origins of the arab-israeli conflict - this week, how a protest over the Wailing Wall led to the end of an uneasy peace after the british had taken over palestine.big idea: afghanistan fell...alreadywell, that was quick readers. last week we cited US intelligence reports that kabul would fall to the taliban within 30 days, and it fell within 30 minutes of our issue’s publication. remind us again, why do we trust the US intelligence services?anyways, afghanistan is in total chaos, with tens of thousands attempting to flee the country via land and air, its former (and cowardly) president in exile in the UAE, women afraid to venture outside their homes, helicopters ferrying americans from around kabul to the airport, billions of dollars of abandoned american military equipment being seized by the taliban, or really anyone who happens to be walking by.this has turned out to be a huge mess for ol’ Joe, who was counting on at least a month to evacuate the thousands of american diplomats and contractors still in afghanistan. instead of an orderly sulk out the back door, he got a stampede at the kabul airport, live streamed for the world to see. Joe didn’t exactly handle things well once the taliban took kabul either, taking days to speak to the nation, and even then, mostly blaming others instead of taking responsibility for the loss of the capital.it’s entirely unclear what’s going to happen now. no one really knows if the taliban will stick to its promises to not aid terrorists anymore and allow women in the public sphere. the afghan people have protested in a number of cities against the taliban takeover, and there are reports that opposition leaders are regrouping in traditionally anti-taliban ethnic areas. Joe’s approval numbers have hit an all-time low, and polling shows americans don’t know what the heck to think of the situation either. this was a quick, but not altogether surprising, end to the american occupation of afghanistan, where it’s pretty clear the afghan people have lost the most.story to watch: will ‘murica learn from afghanistan?we know, we know, talking about afghanistan for both our big idea & story to watch is cheating, but it’s the end of a generation-long war - what lessons (if any) ‘murica draws from this conflict is incredibly important. the intelligence failures from the start to end of this whole quandary were and are staggering, yet it’s unclear if any heads will roll in Joe’s administration.the state and defense departments are already publicly pointing figures at the CIA and the rest of our alphabet soup of spy agencies, even though there’s plenty of blame to be spread...
27 afghanistan is falling, SEC flexing
15-08-2021
27 afghanistan is falling, SEC flexing
dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to join this email newsletter with its newly revamped website and expanded blog called hottakes. sorry guys, it’s summer and love is in the air. for real though, our new weekly deep dive into topics of import is going strong, and we’re continuing to look into the origins of the arab-israeli conflict. this week - how the british made conflicting promises to the arabs, zionists, and french after WWI. we’d say that’s surprising, but the english are pretty dumb.big idea: afghanistan is falling to the talibanthe taliban has taken control of the majority of afghanistan, winning a stunning series of battles over this past week, just three weeks after the US military withdrew from the country. taliban forces took over the second and third largest afghan cities, most international border crossings, and are just seven miles south of kabul. american intelligence agencies predict they could militarily take control of the capital within a month.Joe is scrambling - no one expected afghanistan to fall so quickly. the US embassy is being evacuated, with sensitive documents being destroyed. the US is trying to convince the taliban to spare our embassy when their inevitable attack on kabul begins. the afghan government is reportedly trying to reach a last-ditch power sharing agreement. so far, there is no indication that Joe will backtrack and send american troops back in.the taliban has a clear military strategy. they’re funneling refugees into kabul to overwhelm the government, and are systematically surrounding the city to increase pressure. the government...doesn’t really know what they’re doing, despite $88 billion spent on training them over the past 20 years. reports indicate villages have surrendered to the taliban when as few as 10 militants show up.there’s no sugar coating this - afghanistan will fall to taliban rule as inevitably as Mitch McConnell is slowly turning into a turtle. the taliban’s end game is unclear though - do they intend to take kabul by force, or are they betting they can force the government into surrender? story to watch: the SEC’s flexingearlier this month, the SEC approved a NASDAQ proposal on corporate board diversity, and last week, the SEC chair said the commission is working on disclosure rules for carbon emissions. along with reports that the SEC will start monitoring private equity more closely, it’s clear that the investment regulation commission is stepping up.the diversity proposal will require all companies which want to sell stocks on the NASDAQ to report the diversity of their corporate boards, and explain themselves if they don’t have any women or minorities in these...